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Why the Democrats must choose Obama

11 Feb 2008 02:29 pm

I dare say my preference for Obama over Hillary has been pretty obvious in a lot of my posts and articles, but I have tried up to now to maintain a disinterested altitude. Enough of that. In this new column for the Financial Times I come right out and say what I think of the choice that faces the Democrats.

The US is tired and discouraged these days. The country is right to seek a little inspiration, a lifting of the spirits, a sense of renewal. Mrs Clinton is the perfect antithesis of those things. She is commanding in debate; she knows her facts. But she is dreary and angry at the same time, which is no easy feat. She personifies partisan division. And, through her husband and her nostalgia for the 1990s, she is tied to the past. She is indeed the paradigm of business as usual, with the taint of dynastic succession thrown in. The Democrats would be wrong to make her their nominee, in my view, even in a field of unexceptional candidates – but this is not a field of unexceptional candidates.

Make no mistake, Mr Obama is a once-in-a-generation possibility. Admittedly, in many ways he is too good to be true. Hopes of what he might achieve are running out of control. His followers say he is uniquely able to restore US standing in the world, partly by adopting a more conciliatory approach and partly (it seems) by being black. The sad truth is that on many issues US interests diverge from those of other nations. Any new president could improve relations with other governments; the current administration has set that bar into the floor. But if President Obama aimed first and foremost to advance US interests, as he would, then, regardless of how enlightened and encompassing his notion of US interests proved to be, overseas rapture at his election would quickly fade.

At home the disappointment might be worse. He is a liberal (the most liberal in the senate, according to National Journal’s annual assessment) yet running as a bipartisan moderate. If he were president, one of those tendencies would have to give way.

And then there is the question of race. Black Americans were initially sceptical about the Obama candidacy: they backed Mrs Clinton in early polls. But now they have come around, and how. They have decided he is real; they think he can win; and they long for this affirmation of their standing in the nation. Gratifying that longing is one of the best reasons to nominate Mr Obama, but be under no illusion that he or any other president could fix the problems that have created and entrenched the black urban underclass. Soaring expectations would have to come to terms with (at the very best) grinding incremental progress. Again, the disillusionment might be bitter.

All this is true, but secondary. What makes Mr Obama remarkable is that his message of hope, resonating so powerfully with black America, is cast to every American, regardless of colour, to Democrats and Republicans alike. This is surpassingly important: a man of outstanding intellect and magnetic personality, he is running on a one-nation platform, as though he merely happened to be black. And the best part is, the whole country is paying attention: polls say that he is more electable in November than Mrs Clinton. In a close election, he could make the difference.

Republicans, of course, are bound to dislike his liberalism – but what is there for Democrats to think about? Why are they even having this conversation? They have been waiting an awfully long time for a politician like Mr Obama. If, having come so close, they still manage to nominate Mrs Clinton, I think it is a choice they will regret for years and maybe decades.

You can read the whole column here.

Comments (24)

God bless you! You're right on point my friend...

I have long been arguing that the Democrats would be very foolish to nominate Clinton. Her negatives among the general public are unacceptably high (44-50%), long-standing, and firmly rooted in much of public's mind. She's a candidate who could actually lose to McCain, in a year the Democrats should easily win.

Furthermore, Obama holds the real possibility of winning in a landslide, which would make a progressive agenda much easier to pass in Congress.

Finally, he stands to grow significantly the Democratic Party, attracting young, new, and independent voters to the party. No wonder Republicans don't want to run against him.

Indeed, Democrats would be very foolish to nominate Clinton. I haven't a seen a candidate this good since Bobby Kennedy ran in 1968.

--George

i think that our host is probably on the right track here, but a couple of provisos: a.) the republican party is too busy getting itself organized behind mccain to work on the attack angles against obama, but there is absolutely no reason to think that the machine isn't perfectly capable of driving obama's negatives to clinton territory; b.) lots of people felt this way (although you'd be hard-pressed to get them to admit it today) about jimmy carter in 1976 and no small number about bill clinton in 1992.

i support obama largely because i oppose dynastic succession, but my fear about him is that he will get rolled if and when he's in office, and the cult of personality that is developing around him will crumble rapidly (look back at carter's and clinton's popularity once actually in office).

I have no idea how Obama will do if he snags the nomination. Right now, it's easy to get swept up in his movement, but at some point the press and the electorate will wonder aloud about whether
hope and a vague vision of a renewed country and world are enough. These are very tough times we're in. And a rapidly changing world may not be that interested in following the U.S.'s lead anymore, no matter how benevolent and open the Obama administration happens to be. Here's a question I haven't seen addressed by any of the candidates in either party, by the way: With a new balance of power emerging as the E.U. strengthens and China grows economically, how do we position ourselves in the world?

I don't think Obama is really running a "bipartisan, moderate" campaign. He has not tried to hide his liberalism; his gamble is that independents and even many Republicans care more about integrity and judgment than "the issues", and that a Democrat who can get on the right side of that equation can win a large majority.

If hope and inspiration were the only things that distinguished Barack from Hillary I would still vote for him. This country needs to be inspired, and the rest of the world needs to believe that we can still be inspired, now more than ever. That said, there are still plenty of places where the two democratic candidates differ, as is illustrated in this article: http://politicalmaelstrom.blogspot.com/2008/01/actual-differences-between-barack-and.html

If hope and inspiration were the only things that distinguished Barack from Hillary I would still vote for him. This country needs to be inspired, and the rest of the world needs to believe that we can still be inspired, now more than ever. That said, there are still plenty of places where the two democratic candidates differ, as is illustrated in this article: http://politicalmaelstrom.blogspot.com/2008/01/actual-differences-between-barack-and.html

A couple of thoughts: I think that Obama is both liberal and bipartisan. His broad policy goals are liberal. But he neither demonizes the other side generally, nor disregards their specfic concerns. He does not strive for a Rovian 51%. He notes that today after a failed Bush era in which both the best parts of liberalism (using government to attack those issues we individually or a pure market system cannot address such as universal health care and environmental issues) and of traditional conservatism (fiscal responsibility, competence and an understanding of the limits of America's great influence and abilities internationally) have been case aside, there is an opportunity to forge a new consensus. It may not work in all its details, but I for one hunger for an attempt.

Second, on a more prosaic field, the repeated Clintonian charge that "at some point the press and the electorate will wonder aloud about whether hope and a vague vision of a renewed country and world are enough" is pure tripe. Go read the material on his website, his speeches, etc., starting with his "Blue Print for Change."
He has as many details in his plans as does she.

This will sound harsher than I mean it to because I know that politics involves seizing advantages and finding toeholds where possible. But the fact that HRC cannot give an inspiring speech and is limited to providing laundry lists of policies and programs that in the end differ only minutely from Obama's does not mean that she has substance and he is pure inspiration.

Moreover, the corollary HRC argument regarding experience rings hollow when the Dem candidates who have dropped out are taken into account. Te argument simply crumbles when placed into a context of a general election against McCain.

A couple of thoughts: I think that Obama is both liberal and bipartisan. His broad policy goals are liberal. But he neither demonizes the other side generally, nor disregards their specfic concerns. He does not strive for a Rovian 51%. He notes that today after a failed Bush era in which both the best parts of liberalism (using government to attack those issues we individually or a pure market system cannot address such as universal health care and environmental issues) and of traditional conservatism (fiscal responsibility, competence and an understanding of the limits of America's great influence and abilities internationally) have been case aside, there is an opportunity to forge a new consensus. It may not work in all its details, but I for one hunger for an attempt.

Second, on a more prosaic field, the repeated Clintonian charge that "at some point the press and the electorate will wonder aloud about whether hope and a vague vision of a renewed country and world are enough" is pure tripe. Go read the material on his website, his speeches, etc., starting with his "Blue Print for Change."
He has as many details in his plans as does she.

This will sound harsher than I mean it to because I know that politics involves seizing advantages and finding toeholds where possible. But the fact that HRC cannot give an inspiring speech and is limited to providing laundry lists of policies and programs that in the end differ only minutely from Obama's does not mean that she has substance and he is pure inspiration.

Moreover, the corollary HRC argument regarding experience rings hollow when the Dem candidates who have dropped out are taken into account. Te argument simply crumbles when placed into a context of a general election against McCain.

A couple of thoughts: I think that Obama is both liberal and bipartisan. His broad policy goals are liberal. But he neither demonizes the other side generally, nor disregards their specfic concerns. He does not strive for a Rovian 51%. He notes that today after a failed Bush era in which both the best parts of liberalism (using government to attack those issues we individually or a pure market system cannot address such as universal health care and environmental issues) and of traditional conservatism (fiscal responsibility, competence and an understanding of the limits of America's great influence and abilities internationally) have been case aside, there is an opportunity to forge a new consensus. It may not work in all its details, but I for one hunger for an attempt.

Second, on a more prosaic field, the repeated Clintonian charge that "at some point the press and the electorate will wonder aloud about whether hope and a vague vision of a renewed country and world are enough" is pure tripe. Go read the material on his website, his speeches, etc., starting with his "Blue Print for Change."
He has as many details in his plans as does she.

This will sound harsher than I mean it to because I know that politics involves seizing advantages and finding toeholds where possible. But the fact that HRC cannot give an inspiring speech and is limited to providing laundry lists of policies and programs that in the end differ only minutely from Obama's does not mean that she has substance and he is pure inspiration.

Moreover, the corollary HRC argument regarding experience rings hollow when the Dem candidates who have dropped out are taken into account. Te argument simply crumbles when placed into a context of a general election against McCain.

Take a look at what the rest of the world thinks of us and our elections:

http://newsforums.bbc.co.uk/nol/thread.jspa?forumID=4221&edition=2&ttl=20080212110923

(the short answer: not much).

I hope (there's that word) that a President Obama could go a long way toward changing much of that (largely earned, although distorted and exagerated) bad reputation. In fact, I would put substantial money on his being able to do just that IF he makes it past the Clinton machine in his own party's primary.

The run up to Hillary's selection by the DNC as the presumptive Dem nominee started 7 years ago, when, immediately upon leaving the White House and beginning to run for her NY Senate seat, she managed to inspire a fairly large number of particularly goofy journalists to gush about how, one day, she just might be the first female President of the United States.

The sick feeling I got then, as I contemplated the dumb inevitability of that self-fulfilling prophecy, was very similar to the misgivings I had in 2000 (immediately after Bush was sworn in) and again with only slightly less incredulity in late 2001 (after 9/11), when my superior officers in the 1st AD - for no reason I could discern - began tossing about the idea that we should be ready because another Iraq war might just lie around the next corner.

I am not comparing the actual, massive tragedy of Iraq with the much less weighty wrong that would transpire if a particular candidate (who won't win in any event) were nominated. Rather, I am noting that the same planted, cultivated, and utterly phony sense of unnecessary inevitability accompanied both build-ups.

And largely because I think Obama gives us a much better chance than either McCain or Clinton to make the salvage the most dignity, peace and reconciliation (and thus security) from the ashes of the first, larger tragedy, I hope the second and smaller of these planned tragedies can be averted.

I share the malaise of "disinterested altitude" and am similarly afflicted by high attitude sickness if and when I find my dread in the clouds.

I sincerely hope that, should Obama get the nomination, Chunche is completely wrong in his analysis. Politics is a brutal sport, and you don't win by playing nice with the other side. Obama will certainly be "demonized" by McCain, his surrogates, and the Republican Party in general. He'd be wise to demonize McCain early and often.

And there is some hope that he will. Despite his soaring rhetoric, Obama has played hard against HRC and has certainly allowed her to be demonized to his benefit when required. He will no doubt fight with all he has to disenfranchise the voters of Florida and Michigan should that be necessary for him to win the nomination, as HRC will fight to seat the delegates from these states.

Hope can go hang. If you want change you have to fight for it. Hard. Obama seems to realize this.

Clinton, Obama, McCain, Huckabee are all holding back as frontrunners do. It's only Paul and Gravel, and Kucinich before them, who've spoken the awful truths we need to hear. What about legalizing drugs for sale in liquor stores to end the madness, or radically reforming the tax code, or taking school funding away from towns to get a universal education standard?
Our only hope for a clear picture of what the candidates would really do is to have them name their cabinet choices right now, before another word is spoken.

Obama is just as white as he is black. His mother, and family who raised him were white. I guess the one drop rule persists.

I agree in general, but the idea that Clinton personifies "partisan division" is a red herring. The Republicans have made sleazy and dishonest personal attacks one of their core values, and they will of course apply this to Obama if he is the nominee. We will hear endlessly about how he is secretly a Muslim, wants to surrender to terrorists, etc. The morons who still support Bush will grab their torches and pitchforks. Around October - or perhaps a year or two into an Obama administration - Mr. Crook may have just as much justification for regretting that Obama is such a partisan figure.

Rob Mac, I'm not sure what I wrote that implies that Obama should not or will not "fight hard" for his legislative priorities. What I said is that he does not demonize the other side needlessly. He actually engages with those on the other side and seeks both to persuade them and accomodate their legitimate concerns. Given the need for 60 votes in the Senate, this is a necessity in most instances.

A perfect example is his accomplishment of unanimous passage of legislation requiring the videoptaping of confessions and interrogations. He overcame stiff initial opposition from the law enforcement community (and the Republicans) by working with them and convincing them that the legislation actually protected their interests as well, insulating them from false accusations. (The link below has more examples.)

http://obsidianwings.blogs.com/obsidian_wings/2008/02/obama-actually.html

Now I don't mean to imply that politics (particularly campaigns) don't require -- or that Obama doesn't possess -- sharp elbows. However, if as I hope, we have a chance of overcoming the largely prevailing conservative nature of the American electorate since the early 1980s and accomplishing important progressive goals (such as universal healthcare, rational environmental policies, etc.) it will take more than ramming legislation down the other side's throats. That is why I think what I perceive to be Obama's mix of liberalism and bipartisanship as encouraging.

Yes, Obama could be the next Carter, all idealistic platitudes and no street-smarts. That he is black, though emotionally white and part Muslim only helps him, he has done a brilliant job turning these criticisms against the critics, making him somewhat untouchable. These qualities may be his secret weapon. Carter was too nice to everyone, if Obama is smart, respectful, and a quick learner, he could play his cards differently in Washington and be a survivor there. He will need a very loyal and smart team who will protect him. And he should remain bipartisan and moderate.

After that, what bothers me most is if he is blindly liberal. We may whine about the last eight years, but our economic collapse due to global competition is no fantasy, and it can take some capacity for measured harshness to position us in a very unprecedented and unpredictable world situation. I hope Obama has a global vision and enough guts to take aggressive action when action is needed. The current administration may have seemed reckless, but their bold actions may yet be justified by history.

Central Asia is inevitably in our future. Any administration had better think long and farsightedly about cancelling permanent military bases there. America can no longer live on childish idealism alone. From now on, we have to compete for survival in a world which we have armed and empowered against us. No one wants to see a Fortress America, but I would ask that we would spend our limited finaces more wisely on shrewd defenses at home than in wasteful and ineffectual occupations overseas.

We should always, always elect moderates. And I wish that Schwarzenegger could run. Maybe its time we changed that outdated law about having to be a native.

OK. I'm going to say it, and please don't dump on me until you've heard me out.

Obama is black. He is a black man, and a black candidate. Whether or not you like what I'm about to say, and whether or not you are the subject of what I'm about to say, American is still a very racist country. There are millions upon millions of Americans who cannot and will not bring themselves to vote for a black candidate. Any black candidate. And there are millions more who will be happy to find some other, more socially acceptable, reason not to vote for a black candidate.

I'm not saying that American racism is enough to derail an Obama run for the Presidency. I'm just saying that with a Democratic Party so well known for and so capable of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory, there's a real danger that any minority candidate -- black, brown, Jewish, woman, gay, what have you -- for President could suffer the same unlikely defeat so recently visited upon Mr. Gore and Mr. Kerry. If it happened, could anyone legitimately claim to be surprised or blind-sided?

Such a prejudiced vote may or may not occur. But it's just stupid not to include this factor in any calculations about winning the White House in November, 2008.

Now you can dump on me.

Robert

@Kevin M: Barack is "emotionally white" ! LOL

You played yourself, sir, you really did.

Doesn't Obama-Richardson have a nice ring to it?

Robert,

To quote (from memory at least) a Wisconsin voter I heard interviewed on NPR a morning or two ago: "I'm going to vote for that black boy." The fellow was impressed that Obama was really smart. I have a friend whose elderly mother--also in a must-win Hillary state--said something quite similar. I suspect we are going to see people "of a certain age" using all sorts of race tinged language to describe the man they want to vote for: black boy, colored fellow, whatever his name is. They may need to work on their PC a little but they know who they're voting for and they like him. I'm not saying its not weird and I'm not saying that Obama won't lose the stray vote here or there, but the biggest impact that race is having on this election is that blacks are voting as a block and in a big way. This will more than offset pockets of racism. (And how very strange that Mrs. Clinton has positioned herself as the candidate for the white racist).

And Joel, anything involving Richardson does not have a nice ring for me. Sorry.

Of the last ten presidential elections Democrats have won a paltry three--four if you include Gore winning the popular vote in 2004. These victories were gotten by Southern Democrats who ran moderate to conservative campaigns. In turn, five of the seven defeats have come at the hands of the liberal wing of the Democratic Party--six really if you include the 100,000 liberals in Florida that voted for Nader in 2000.

After the failures of Bush administration and hypocrisy of the Republican Congress, this presidential election should have been a forgone conclusion for Democrats. However, the most propitious scenario for the Republicans to retain the White House is enfolding.

How can this most improbable scenario have had happened? The liberal wing of the Democratic Party was in control of the primary process since the beginning. The same wing of the party that has displayed an uncanny ability to lose elections. In HBO's Rome Caesar is quoted as saying, "Its only hubris if I fail," with Liberal Democrats its only hubris if you succeed. What about 2006? That election was won by Democrats won by keeping the liberal wing of the party quiet, while stating to rest of the country, "We are not Republican." And Kerry may have decided to tell a joke, he thankfully apologized after a slew of calls from Democrats.

So even though there is little difference between Obama and Clinton in policy there is a great divide in the rhetorical skills. When Clinton speaks the sun sets. When Obama speaks Democrats have a willing suspension of disbelief for public policy. This willing suspension maybe why even though Obama has shown to have a glass jaw every time Bill--not Hillary--landed a traditional and solid political swipe, Liberal Democrats have defended Obama. You see within this suspension of disbelief there is a quid pro quo: Liberal Democrats have tacitly agreed to suspend their judgment based on policy in exchange for entertainment. Thus, the Clintons have become the elderly member of the Democratic household from whom you keep the remote control.

Unfortunately, independents are going to be more mindful of policy. And when they see that at the heart of Obama's change is traditional tax and spend liberalism as well as a dovish foreign policy, things will be different. Fortunately, the Republicans will have to have more artful in this endeavor than in past elections; hopefully they are fast running out of wedge issues.

However, I also think that Obama should carry the standard in this election although I once supported Clinton. Once regarded as a moderate she has tacked to the left inelegantly. NAFTA is now a mistake. You can't be nostalgic for the nineties and denigrate the policies that made the period such a remarkable one.

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