Here is my column for Monday's FT:
So far, reaction in the US to Russia's invasion of Georgia has been all Vladimir Putin could have wished. Exhausted in every way by its experience in Iraq (a failure not much mitigated by recent progress there), its authority and sense of purpose quite depleted, the US looked slower and less decisive than Europe in its initial response, and that is saying something.
It took repeated prodding from presidential contender John McCain to draw President George W. Bush's attention from the Beijing Olympics to the fact that Russian forces were overrunning the territory of a US ally. Then, as the White House slowly geared up its rhetoric, dispatched the secretary of state to Tbilisi, and began talking vaguely of repercussions, both the administration and the goading Mr McCain were accused of war-mongering hysteria by liberal commentators and even by some conservatives.
It is easy to account for this lassitude and lack of self-confidence. The US feels anything but strong these days. Iraq has strained its armed forces to such a point that it cannot commit adequate resources even to its struggle to stabilise Afghanistan, which would otherwise be an immediate and high priority. Aside from the human cost of the Iraq mission, Americans are also preoccupied with its enormous fiscal burden. Just last week, Barack Obama's campaign again underlined how much it is counting on savings from a withdrawal from Iraq to pay for expanded domestic spending. The country has a new set of priorities.
Even more telling, though, is the erosion of its moral assurance and sense of purpose in the world. The instant reaction of many of the administration's critics was to say: "We invaded Iraq without justification. We have no standing to object if Russia does the same to Georgia." Andrew Sullivan, a prominent conservative blogger and a one-time supporter of the Iraq war, wrote: "Maybe we should start complaining when as many Georgians have perished as Iraqis - and when Putin throws thousands of innocent Georgians into torture chambers."
Differences
between the two cases - Georgia is a democracy not a totalitarian
tyranny, and is a state in good standing with the world not a proven
aggressor and serial violator of United Nations resolutions - received
little attention. The fact that Georgia is also a US ally was also
overlooked. It was all the same thing. In fact, when you thought about
it, Russia's case for acting as it did was stronger than the US
rationale for attacking Iraq: Mikheil Saakashvili, Georgia's leader, is
erratic and sort of asked for it, and his country is right on Russia's
doorstep, inside its legitimate sphere of influence.
Certainly, if the US is to recover its ability to make moral distinctions and rational calculations of self-interest, it will need to shed this administration. That is part of what it will take to get over Iraq - but will it be enough? It was disappointing, though unsurprising, that the McCain and Obama campaigns both saw Georgia through the prism of electoral politics, rather than seeking to unite on the issue. Mr McCain was agitated and militant - alarmingly so, it must be said. Mr Obama was circumspect, called for restraint on both sides and consultation with allies, and in effect said nothing. Mr McCain's campaign underlined his toughness and experience; Mr Obama's emphasised their candidate's calmness and refusal to shoot from the hip.
An approach that combines these stereotypical attitudes is needed. If it is in Mr Putin's mind to use force and intimidation to reconstitute the Soviet Union in the form of a new Russian empire - as it might be - then the US and its friends must overcome post-Iraq equivocation and recognise this as both morally outrageous and as a serious challenge to their interests. Mr Putin would need to be firmly resisted, not with empty overheated threats, but with measured concrete steps.
Since coming to power, Mr Putin has sought and in large measure been granted partnership with the west. Europe and the US have worked on the assumption that Russia wanted to become a normal country. That was questionable even before Georgia. At the moment it looks absurd. Russia wants it both ways. It wants the benefits of international partnership - in the World Trade Organisation, the Group of Eight and other forums - while being free to reassert itself over the former Soviet Union. Mr Putin needs to be told that he cannot have it both ways. If Russia keeps forces in Georgia proper, at a minimum that should veto WTO membership and future invitations to G7 conclaves. The message to Mr Putin should be that he is sincerely wanted as a partner because the benefits assuredly flow in both directions, but not at any price.
Aside from underlining the extent to which Iraq has weakened the US, spiritually and materially, the invasion of Georgia drove home something else as well: the fact that there is still no substitute for American leadership. Europe's diplomatic mission was commendably prompt, but completely ineffective. The European Union is deeply divided over Russia. Its newer members from the former Soviet empire are intent on resisting any renewed Russian ambitions to intimidate them. Germany and others are fearful of offending Mr Putin - for instance, by speeding the accession of Ukraine and other ex-Soviet states into Nato and the EU. The US has to set the course in dealing with Russia. Europe ought to, but cannot and will not.
Exercising such leadership means getting over Iraq. Sadly for citizens of the former Soviet republics and their neighbours in central Europe, that is going to take a while.
Interesting to hear the argument that McCain prodded Bush into paying attention to the invasion of Georgia. From this Californian's perspective, that is the slow-witted Bush acting at his usual speed, especially while on vacation (cf. Katrina).
Also interesting to hear a conservative argue that the US needs to get out of Iraq in order to preserve its ability to act on the world stage. Amen.
Eh. What, specifically, would we have done differently about the Georgia situation if we weren't in Iraq? Absolutely nothing. Georgia's young president got too big for his britches and started a war with Russia, over a territory where the residents prefer Russian control to Georgian control. This is Stalin's homeland, for heaven's sake. The same whiners who complain about the difficulties in achieving our historic victory in Iraq would have gone apoplectic if Bush proposed using military force in Georgia. And yet they lament that he hasn't invaded Georgia because of that damn war in Iraq. Please.
This question; why should anyone in the United States care about what Russia does in Georgia? I'm not being argumentative here, I pose the question sincerely.
My country in my view has always had a great deal of difficulty defining it's strategic interests. Perhaps it's because we haven't been at it that long. We developed interests outside our own hemisphere only at the beginning of the 20th Century after all.
Perhaps it is our inexperience that has led to a pattern unique in human history. No major power before ours has ever had such long term peace on it's own borders while fighting so many major wars on other continents. No other nation has ever had as much power and influence as ours has while containing a population that has so little interest in international affairs.
This administration has complicated the matter even more, maintaining a peace time fiscal policy (with respect to taxes and domestic spending) during a war. Every President since Lincoln has raised taxes in wartime. GWB is the first since Lincoln not to do so and the first ever to cut them.
And so we are an anomaly. Our political elite takes an interest in what happens almost everywhere and intervenes in places for reasons even those who support the interventions can't agree on (see Vietnam as well as Iraq), while the general population, including the educated portion of it, in a democracy for God's sake, has to consult a map and a pronunciation guide to figure out where its sons and daughters are going to war next.
Something is seriously screwed up here and has been for a long time. Hence my question; why should anyone in the United States care about what Russia does in Georgia?