From tomorrow's FT:
Barack Obama's campaign for the presidency will be seen as one of the most brilliantly planned and executed in the country's history. The challenges that will confront him as president do not rise to quite that level - the US does not face Nazi Germany or the Soviet Union, and it is not literally at war with itself - but they will suffice to be getting on with.
What happens when an irresistible politician meets an immovable political or economic reality? Is a superb campaigner equipped to be a good president in testing circumstances?
Or is it rather as Bob Dylan put it: "The louder they come, the harder they crack?"
Mr Obama's stunning political talents are indeed great assets, more so in the US system than they would be elsewhere. His mastery of the campaigning art has two aspects - and both should be as valuable in office as they were in winning it.
One is his personal magnetism. He is an instantly likeable man; a fine orator yet no demagogue; an intellectual but not inclined to show off about it; a calm and calming presence. The other is that, on the evidence of this campaign, he is an exceptionally cool and competent manager. No Drama Obama, they call him.
Compare the discipline and single-mindedness of Mr Obama's campaign with the shambles of John McCain's. Compare its steady consistency of tone and message with the squabbling, indecisive, misdirected efforts of Hillary Clinton and her team.
If you ask why George W. Bush was such a bad president, it is partly because he scores so poorly as a leader and as a manager. Most Americans found him a likeable man, to be sure, but none would accuse him of being an inspiring speaker, or even always an intelligible one.
At times a country needs its spirits lifted, or its nerves steadied. Mr Bush spoke well for the nation after the terror attacks of 9/11, but subsequently failed to rise to this challenge. His faltering, glassy-eyed pep-talks of recent weeks, with the financial system breaking down and the economy falling into recession, alarmed more people than they reassured.
As for Mr Bush's management skills, one need only think of the war in Iraq or the administration's lamentable handling of Hurricane Katrina.
An indispensable talent in a president is the ability to delegate well - to appoint good people (a president can choose from the best) and get the soundest advice.
To a pathological degree, Mr Bush has valued political loyalty over competence. Whatever one thinks of his goals, the results speak for themselves. Mr Obama's choice of advisers is impeccable, and not drawn from a narrow circle of friends and allies. He demands to be exposed to counter-arguments; he is not always looking to have his own prejudices shored up.
Admirable as these traits may be, Mr Obama is untested in high office. Governing is not campaigning. An audience can be charmed by a well-turned phrase and a winning manner. Facts on the ground are less susceptible, and starting with the economy Mr Obama has to deal with some especially bloody-minded instances.
He promised in his victory speech: "I will always be honest with you about the challenges we face." Maybe in future he will be, but his economic platform - promising lower taxes for almost everyone and greatly expanded public programmes too - was hardly forthright.
He may in the end be a victim of his own talent. He set out to raise expectations and he did: they are impossibly high.
His ability to manage disappointment is so far untested. That is about to change.
Actually, Barack Obama has managed disappointment, to an extent. Some on the left (check out the comments at DailyKos during the primaries) asked why he had "failed" to accomplish great things in the Senate. We were still in Iraq, Roberts and Alito were confirmed, and problematic legislation (FISA, the energy bill, etc.) passed into law. Not that it's realistic to expect a first term Senator to magically find a way to transform our entire stick-in-the-mud system of checks and balances into something that it's not.
You need a President to do that.
Bush did it for the worst, diminishing our institutions and even our language through sheer brute stubbornness combined with poor judgment and his association with the wrong crowd.
Obama's success in winning the Democratic nomination was itself due in part to his ability to manage expectations (however imperfectly) about the limits of power as a community organizer and legislator.
My fear is that he will become Hoover to Bush's Coolidge. Its terrible to say, but Obama will need to steal a page from the Republican playbook, and get right on the blame game. Every time he talks about he economic problems, he needs to make sure to say Bush's name. Make sure his tax increase is specifically to offset Bush's deficit.
He will have a huge advantage in that people are pre-disposed to believe that everything from the deficit, to the bank collapse, to their cousin's chlamydia, is W's fault.
We can also start drawing down the troops in Iraq. At Iraq's request. That will save us money, although treating the physically and psychologically injured will take a toll for decades to come.
One nice thing, I think he will be smart enough to hew to the center in policy, meaning the middle class will hopefully remain loyal to him.
Clive no one is tested in high office until they are. JC, GWI, BC and GWII are the only 4 people on the planet that meet that spec...so while the phrase sounds great its useless.
What about anything that we have seen about Obama or that we know about his contemplative, measured and intellectual background makes you think he can't handle what we face?
I can tell you what, I have no delusions, but I am more sanguine about the next 4 years than I've ever been.
Obama's is like a day trader who KNOWS he's buying at the bottom. Unlike a day trader he can't just WAIT for things to go up, he actually has to instigate the process, but as a president there is no better position to be in, just ask BC.
For me the greatest concern I have is that inevitably having raised expectations, at some point all or some of his followers will be disappointed.
That in past times may not have mattered, but given what seems like a cargo cult following from some, such disappointment may cause very real problems
Let's hope he is as good an agent for change through his works as he is through his words.
If we overlook 'the fierce urgency of now', (as Rev King put it) it would be a bitter disappointment.
Effective communication requires clarity of thought. So Barack Obama's talent for eloquence cannot inhabit some separate universe in his brain, disconnected from his ability to looks at situations with objectivity, and clarity and purpose. Consider that the 'experienced' Bush could not string a few words together, was handicapped in terms of perspecdtive, insighr and clarity which spilled out over into every aspect of his administration. Obfuscation, obstinacy and lies swelled from his inability to articulate complex positions or devise solutions to far reaching issues,. Note also how Sarah Palin's 'experience' served her well! She was incapable of organizing her thoughts at any level to answer basic questions about the economy and foreign policy (the most likeliest twin tests of the near future). Poor speakers, Bush and Palin (run on sentences interspersed with cute cliches)are not limited only by their poor language skills, any more than the eloquent speakedr can be said to be only just that...talk.
Time will tell.. I think this is a pretty good analysis..
In the end, I think Obama will be successful, but I think his success will be measured in how much he gets people to accept the hard choices that are going to be needed.
On taxes, especially, any "tax cuts" for the middle classes and poor must be made only for the short term.. We all need to get back to the days of the pre-Bush tax cut rates, when the taxes actually covered our expenses.. and we may actually need more if we are going to rebuild our infrastructure and handle health care problems.
If Obama is smart--and I clearly think he is--then he will be able to get us to do the right thing.. he is no messiah.. and he has never claimed to be.. and hopefully people will get that..
Your observations are as astute as always but I must take exception with your judgment that Obama's "choice of advisors is impeccable". Exhibit A is Joe Biden for VP.
I won't go into the dubious associates and colleagues that Obama sought out and worked with in the past.